《AJAE》| Cui & Xie：农业通过调整种植季节来适应气候变化：来自中国玉米的证据

摘要：近期研究表明，气候变化将给农业带来严重的挑战和深远的影响。目前有一些假设模拟表明，在未来气候条件下，调整种植季节可以较大程度减少产量损失，在量化农民通过生长季节调整的适应程度方面，还缺乏相关因果关系的学术探究。本文利用1993-2013年间，农业气候监测站点监测到的详细的中国作物生长信息微观数据，发现播种日期和生长季节长度对同期温度和降水有显著的反应。对于样本中的中位点，调整种植季节的适应性行为可能导致本世纪末的播种日期提前2到6天，并将生长季节缩短3至6天。这些适应性调整可以避免多达9％的气候变化对作物的损害。然而，我们的实证分析并没有发现长期响应效应或伴随投入调整的明确证据，建议制定合理的政策于方案以进一步激发农民适应的潜力。

关键词：适应，农业，行为反应，气候变化，生长季节，投入

Abstract: Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal rearrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing-season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993–2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long-run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process.

Key words: Adaptation, agriculture, behavioral response, climate change, growing season, inputs.

《AJAE》全称为《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》，最新影响因子为4.70，刊载方向为管理科学-农业经济与政策。

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